Lake Lanier 1071 coalition being formed to Fight the Lake Lanier Water Battle

1071 Coalition Formed to Fight Lake Lanier Drought Issues and Water Releases down south.

October 29th, 2008 10:51 AM

Check out the news release about the new coalition to fight back and save Lake Lanier from further low water issues, water flow down south, etc.

http://www.1071coalition.org/press_2008-10-28.html

As we all know Lake Lanier is a HUGE financial engine and we need to fight to save Lake Lanier from continued drought impact.

The media has been part of the problem as I have talked to many people who think there is little to no water left in Lake Lanier....Far from the truth. However, that being said, we need to be proactive and this group has formed for this very reason. They want to take action now to make things happen instead of waiting for others to do something about this issue. The 3 State water wars has been going on for almost 20 years, it is about time!

This is FANTASTIC news. Finally we are getting together to fight hard for this lake with some pretty heavy hitters on the Board of Directors.

Some of you may have read that Obama sides with Florida and Alabama on the water release issue. This is a real problem as he clearly has no clue about Lake Lanier, if this story is indeed true.

Check out this link to the 1071 coalition site, become a member and while you are at it, I have requested to be on the Board of Directors. Somehow they do NOT have a Lake Lanier Appraiser on their Board. One of their initiatives is to show the impact of the Lake Lanier Drought on property values and economy, so who better to give them this information....right?

I have already requested to be added to the Board of Directors but feel free to contact them to ask them to add me to the Board. I am a strong advocate for Lake Lanier and anyone who has followed my blogs and business, knows this to be true.

Thanks for stopping by and spread the good word around and also send this link to everyone you know today!

Lake Lanier Sales

We have 80 lake homes that are sold or pending since 1/1/08. Wide range of prices from a low of $215,000 to over 2 million (all with boat docks in place).

Of these 80, there are 47 that have closed or have pended since May, 2008. It is not earth shattering, but lake sales are happening and they are happening NOW. During this same period last year, there were 98 homes that sold, just about 2 times more homes last year than this year.
There are 404 Lake Lanier home listings with individual boat docks, from a low of $214,000 to a high of $7,500,000.

Remember when there were NO homes to be found in the $200,000 range and very few in the $300,000 range. Well there are plenty now. The water may be low, but the prices will not be this low forever.

The average listing price of all the listings is over $800,000 so that has not changed much since my last post on the Lake Lanier Stats.

We have loads of inventory for buyers to decide upon. So get out there now to get the best possible deal you are likely to get on this Lake. Prices MAY go lower, but do not count on that. You must decide what is most important for you....Location, water depth, style of house, etc. Then narrow your search to include those things that are most important to you.....

Once you decide on your dream home....then let us appraise it for you BEFORE you sign on the dotted line to see if your investment is a good one. Then you are good to go....

I know there is so much indecision in the market, in the industry as a whole, in the economy with the bail out underway, elections just around the corner, stock market volatility, but if you find what you are looking for, don't take that chance of losing it forever. Sometimes in life you just have to go for the gusto!

Have a great week everyone and remember to stop and smell the "roses" along the way! Enjoy yourself and be safe on the Lake!

2008 Lake Lanier Sales Statistics-First Half 2008

I have the news on Lake Lanier Listings and Sales (of existing homes on Lake Lanier) for the first half of 2008. These are based upon FMLS stats for homes that were coded as being Lake Lanier or Lakefront property with at least a single slip boat dock or permit for a single slip dock in place. Figures will not be exact, but they are a good representation of activity on Lake Lanier.

General Stats:

1. There are 368 CURRENT Listings with an Average Listing Price of $829,000.

2. There are 12 pending properties with an Average Listing Price of $803,000, with average
Days on Market at 102.

3. From 1/1/08-6/30/08 there have been 104 properties out of the 368 placed on the market with an average list price of $870,000.

Listings:

1. 1/1/07-6/30/07 Listed properties averaged $721,000 Total Listed in this time period = 16

2. 7/1/07-12/31/07 Listed properties averaged $976,000 Total Listed in this time period= 41

Sales:

1. 1/1/08 to 6/30/08 there have been 18 sales with 5 pending sales. The average sales price is $526,000 with average Days on Market at 109 (Low of $239,000 to a high of $800,000). The average list to sales price ratio was 8%

Please Note: There are many homes that have been on the market much longer than this. The days on the market number is skewed if the home was listed for many months and then relisted after the first listing expired, with a new FMLS number and date. The days on market is only calculated from the last time the home was placed on the market with a new listing number and date. Many homes fall into this situation, so in reality days on market is likely much higher. **This has been our experience when appraising lake property and checking to see how many times the home was listed with new dates and FMLS numbers.

2. 1/1/07-6/30/07 there were 30 sales. The average sales price of $623,000 with average Days on Market at 90 (low of 219,000 to a high of $1,384,605). The average list to sales price ratio was 5%

Expired Listings:

In 2007, there were 333 homes that had expired listings with average list price of $741,000. Many have been relisted and currently back on the market

In 2008 first half, there have been 52 expired listings. Average list price of $860,500. Again many have been relisted.

Days on market not available as an average, but most listings are for a period of 90-120 days to start and many have been relisted as a new listing after it expires, so the days on market can be significantly higher, than they appear to be on the current listing.

What does all of this mean?

The bad news is there are loads of listings for more competition between properties and the amount of sales has dropped from same period last year to this year by 40%, with an average of 19 more days on the market. The average sales price dropped by 15.5% from the first half of 2007.

Also, the average list to sales price ratio has increased by 3%. Sellers are accepting lower offers off the list price than they have in the past.

The good news is that from the 1/1/07-6/20/07 period to the same period this year 1/1/08-6/30/8 the average listing price has gone up from $721,000 to $870,000. The average of all the listings is $829,000. So unless prices continue to drop or there are no buyers in this price range and higher, the average sales price from this point forward will be considerably higher than the first half of 2008.

**The pending sales average list price seems to confirm this premise**

Also for buyers there is NO better time than NOW to buy Lake Lanier property. Never again will there be such a selection of homes with highly motivated sellers. The prices have dropped overall however, based upon the stats provided here, this will not be the case much longer.

So get out there and check the inventory and start thinking about purchasing your lake home. Because once the water starts to return and it WILL...Always has.... always will....it is our opinion that prices will rise quickly and if that occurs you will lose out on getting some great deals on this Lake.

Now more than ever you need an Appraisal on any Lake Lanier home you are thinking of buying or selling. You need current, real values. So call today for your Lake Lanier Home Appraisal. We specialize in this kind of property and you need this experience, especially now or it could be a real disaster! www.marytappraisals.com

We hope this information was helpful, please comment if you so desire.

Have a safe summer and remember.....Be Safe on the Lake!

Lake Lanier Sales Activity First Half of 2008

So sorry for the delay in bringing you this information, it has been a crazy month. Our daughter Julie is getting married next week and we have been busy getting ready for the big day as well as our other work obligations. At least we are staying somewhat busy.

I will have those numbers for you by the weekend, so hang tight, come on back and see where we are in the Lake Lanier Market.

Take care, have a great week!

Lake Lanier Water News`

Great news yesterday, the Corps has agreed to release less water from Lake Lanier. The mussels down south can do with less water to survive and GOD knows we need it more than the mussels!

So now we need to PRAY for more rain....90's all this week, will mean alot of evaporation from the lake, so we need the rain and soon.

In the next week I will be putting together some numbers for the 1st 5 months of sales and pending sales on LakeLanier, so stay tuned.

www.marytappraisals.com
www.lakelanierappraiser.blogspot.com

We are seeing more activity just in the last few weeks with appraisals for those looking at lake homes and those wanting to put their homes up for sale.

New Home Valuation Code of Conduct Impacts Appraisers

As many of you may or may not know, there has been quite an upheaval in the real estate appraisal profession, that is due to change the face of the appraisal and lending world as of January, 2009 if the new HVCC regulations pass as written. (Home valuation Code of Conduct.) This started when Attorney General Cuomo was investigating Fannie Mae and a large Appraisal Management company for fraudulent activity as it relates to the foreclosure mess we are in today.

Ever since appraisers have been doing business, lenders have applied pressure to "hit a number" to make the deal work, Realtors and homeowners have also applied their fair share of pressure, but it was the lenders that basically threatened to take business from the appraiser if they did not make the deal work.

Well many appraisers folded and did some unscrupulous things, but for many, it meant you either make the lenders happy or lose your livelihood. The ironic thing is that the sole reason appraisers exist is to PROTECT the lenders from making risky loans on real estate, but since brokers were not the ones LENDING the money, they were not too concerned with risks to the lender!

Unfortunately the general public feels that the sole responsibility for this HUGE foreclosure mess we are in is due to APPRAISER fraud...Well they did not do this without help...the lenders had a big hand in this but whenever a home went into default, who did they penalize and punish....the lender....Oh no, it was and always is the appraiser. We are always the fall guy and it gets tiresome for many of us as we are really trying to do our jobs to the best of our ability.

The whole point of this BLOG is this: If the HVCC passes as it is written, most mortgage brokers will be taken out of the appraisal ordering process and the only ones who will be doing the ordering will be the BANKS and Appraisal Management Companies. This affects Homeowners, Realtors and Brokers by removing ANY influence you feel you have with any mortgage brokers with whom you do business. There will be no relationship between the person ordering the appraisal report and the appraiser, total independence. Get ready for most of your deals going south due to the appraisal not meeting the value.

This is not all bad, as the appraisal should be what prevents the loan from taking place IF the home is not worth the price and if you are a Realtor who represents buyers, you want your buyers protected too right? But having total independence from the appraiser does not necessarily mean an accurate and fair appraisal.

What if the BANK who is randomly selecting appraisers uses one who has no clue about a particular type of property. In our case we specialize in Lakefront property. With the new HVCC rules, Realtors, Homeowners and Brokers will not be able to intervene and say....We must have an experienced appraiser in a given field, be it Lakefront, Oceanfront, Riverfront, Golf Course, Condos, etc etc. You get my point!

Lenders and Realtors and even Homeowners will be subject to federal offenses if they pressure the appraiser in any way to "hit a number".

Personally most appraisers are happy that for ONCE, we can just do the jobs that we were trained heavily for and that is to provide an unbiased opinion of value for the subject property, however many of us spent years developing our business relationships with the mortgage brokers, Realtors and homeowners only to have that taken away.

There were thousands of appraisers that wrote to the Attorney General and to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (including yours truly) to voice their concerns about the way the new guidelines were written, so we shall see.

One big issue we have is that lenders can use AVM's (automated valuation models), BPO's or other avenues to obtain a value for the subject property, without having to disclose this to the potential homeowner, in other words, they can play the system until they get the number they want without consequence. Lenders will not be held accountable by using these forms of unregulated and unrestricted forms of valuation but are held accountable when an appraiser is providing the valuation product.

The end result is they will avoid appraisers and use these less than reliable forms of valuation and we are right back where we started, faulty loans on properties that have not been properly appraised.

So if you are asked to join in on the protest against the HVCC as currently proposed, please consider joining us in this fight, because WE ALL LOSE, Realtors, Lenders and Appraisers and of course the HOMEOWNER!

As I mentioned above, I am all for punishment of lenders who apply pressure on appraisers, we need to be left alone to do our jobs! But I am not for throwing the Baby out with the Bath water, which is what is happening and it will affect your business!

Just thought you should know what is going on in the appraisal world. Have a great day!
Mary Thompson
www.marytappraisals.com

Lake Lanier Activity in First Quater 2008

As promised, I wanted to give you the numbers on the sales activity on Lake Lanier for the 1st full quarter of 2008.

There were a total of 24 sales that closed between 1/1/08 and 4/1/08. Of those closed sales 4 closed in January, 8 closed in February and 12 closed in March, 2008. An additional 9 homes went under contract in this same time period.

The 9 that pended, they were broken down as follows:
1 Sale in the upper $300,000 range
1 Sale in the upper $400,000 range
3 Sales in the $500,000 range
2 Sales in the $700,000 range
2 Sales in the $800,000 range

Of the 24 sales that closed between 1/1/08-4/1/08 they were broken down as follows:

4 Sales in the $200,000 range
5 Sales in the $300,000 range
3 Sales in the $400,000 range
6 Sales in the $500,000 range
0 Sales in the $600,000 range
1 Sale in the $700,000 range
2 Sales in the $800,000 range
1 Sale in the $900,000 range
2 sales in the 1 Million range

As expected the pending and closed sales went up each month from January to April.

**In comparison to last year, in the same time period, there were 64 closed sales between 1/1/08-4/1/08. Here are some stats on the comparison:

1/1/07-4/1/07 the AVERAGE sales price was $628,000 and the average list to sales price ratio was 4%. The average days on the market before the home went under contract was 77 days.

1/1/08-4/1/08 the AVERAGE sales price was $613,900 with an average list to sales price ratio of 6%. The average days on market before the home went under contract was 99 days.

These are mathematical average of all sales combined. As an appraiser we would define this market as STABLE, not declining. It is too small of a variance to say it was declining.

Based upon the numbers shown above it would appear that the $500,000 price range is the most popular pending and closed sale. There were more than expected number of sales in the $300,000 and below range.

Now to the LISTINGS: There are approximately 322 listings of Lake Lanier homes with boat docks in place. Here is how they break down:

25 listings from $400,000 and under
76 listings from $400,000 to $600,000
95 listings from $600,000 to $ 800,000
50 listings from $$800,000 to 1 Million
69 listings from $1 Million to $3 Million
6 listings from $3 Million to $5 Million
1 Listing over $14 Million and most of you know which one this is!

Overall weighted average of listings comes in around $895,000. Based upon an average of 6% list to sales price ratio, average sale would be $841,300.

So it appears that the average sale price over the next quarter will be higher than the first quarter of 2008 and higher than the first quarter of 2007.

So buyers, you have alot of homes to chose from in every price range. Have fun looking and make 2008 the year to buy because as you can see, the prices will just continue from this point forward to go UP!

The lower price range bracket will continue to diminish and those in the upper price brackets will continue to rise. Almost 24.0% of the 322 listings are 1 million and over!

I hope this information has been helpful and as always.....If you are even thinking of buying or selling on Lake Lanier.....call an EXPERT......Yours truly!

Thanks for stopping by and Be Safe on the Lake.

Lake Lanier Waters Still Rising

We are up 6.0 feet since December and according to many Lake Lanier Realtors, the calls and interest in Lake Lanier is up more than ever.

Now for those of you who think you can get a Lake Lanier home for 1/2 its worth due to the drought, please think again! Yes it is a buyers market, but we are still dealing with Lakefront property! Values have corrected and been somewhat flat this year, but they are NOT declining.

This is what is important if you are thinking of buying Lake Lanier property .... 2008 is the best year to make that lake home buying decision...WHY? Because the dock permits will end this year most likely, the water WILL rise (check out my previous post about the history of Lake Lanier waters) and the market will correct. Once these 3 things happen, the homes on Lake Lanier will see increases as good or better than we have seen before and my opinion is that all of these factors may happen in close proximity to each other and you will see an increase in lake home values occur suddenly and quickly.

So DO NOT lose out on perhaps your last chance to purchase a Lake Lanier home while it is still fairly affordable.

Come on back, later this week I will provide March statistics on pending and closed sales for March and the 1st quarter of 2008.

Have fun and above all, be safe on the Lake!

Lake Lanier Levels Keep Rising

Lake Lanier up to 15.5 feet as of Saint Patty's day. While the rains and tornadoes were terrible for alot of people, we did gain almost a foot of water in the lake.

We have not been up this high on the Lake since the fall, so we are going in the right direction.

Lake pending sales and closed sales are on the rise and things are looking up. Marinas are starting to put boats back in their slips and more boat ramps are open. We are seeing more fisherman on the the lake and spring is just around the corner, so activity will be picking up on Lake Lanier.

Interest rates keep falling so now is the time to buy on Lake Lanier.

So Enjoy Lake Lanier this year and by next year, if things keep going in this direction, we will not be talking about Lake Lanier Drought!

Thinking of buying or selling on Lake Lanier, you know who to call!

http://www.marytappraisals.com/

And for all of your Lake Lanier needs, visit: http://www.lakelanier.com/ today.

Have a wonderful St. Patty's day, be safe and be happy!

Lake Activity Picked up In January!

We saw a significant increase in appraisal requests for Lake Lanier in Janaury, not quite as many for February. But the people requesting these appraisals were potential buyers and sellers, not refinance deals. So things are looking up on Lake Lanier, it is getting close to spring, prices are very attractive and now is the time to buy!

We have noticed that those with good water are hanging tight on their listing prices as they should! Good water is a premium right now and if you still have water at your dock, then you most definitely have DROUGHT proof lake property.

With the rains that we have been blessed with over the past few weeks, the lake has come up 3 feet since December! We are at 17.66 below full pool as of 2/25/08. Terrific news. Plus we had a good downpour today.

We have appraised some homes selling in the $500,000 range recently with no water at the dock, but the water was within a stones throw of the dock. Buyers realize the water will come back and their investment will be protected.

If you have to sell your lake home without water, realize that it is difficult for people to feel confident that the water will return and their perceived value of your home is not going to be equal to your perceived value. Feel free to refer them back to my previous post that outlines lake levels over the past 25 years. The water has dropped many times below the 1060 mark, but it has always come back. It will take longer this time around, but if it keeps raining like it has, we could be back in action by next season!

If you are thinking of buying or selling on the lake, get professional advice first from a realtor or an appraiser who knows this lake!

Yours truly can help you on the appraisal front. http://www.marytappraisals.com/

If you need Lake Lanier related services....check out http://www.lakelanier.com/

Thanks for stopping by and check back often for more updates on Lake Lanier Values.

THERE ARE BOAT DOCK PERMITS LEFT!

Just got off the phone with the Corps 1/15/08 and they have advised that once they lift the "Low Water Action Plan" (when the water returns to 1064), that there are approximately 160 permits left that they will issue.

Low Water Action Plan means they are not doing anything with regard to boat dock permits, new or existing,

The reason there are more than was anticipated is that many people applied for permits and then for whatever reason they did not comply with or send back the paper work to obtain the permit that they applied for. Therefore these went back into the system as available permits.

So if you need to get a permit, you still have an opportunity to get one!

Their phone number is 770-945-9438. Or main number 770-945-9531

RECESSION AND LAKE LANIER LEVELS

Happy New Year! I thought it was interesting to note that the last time we were in a recession was in 2001 and that was the last time Lake Lanier was down over 15.0 feet below full pool. Currently we are 19.72 feet below full pool as of this post. They say we are not YET in a recession, but it sure FEELS like it!

I had an interesting conversation with a Realtor in Rabun County talking about Lake Burton and how there is only a 4 foot drop during the winter months on their lake. He told me that Lake Lanier is a "mud hole" now and said that our Lake went down in the 90's and has never recovered.

Of course I begged to differ with him! Lake Lanier has had its issues with water for over 17 years, but I am a little prejudiced, I guess, because Lake Lanier has many other things going for it...ie; that beautiful blue water, its proximity to Atlanta, its continued increase in values since the lake was built in the 1950's, etc.

Yes we are in a BUYERS market now, with market corrections taking place, but after reviewing the numbers, Lake Lanier still had a modest increase in values in 2007. While it feels like we are in a declining market on the Lake, I am happy to report, we are NOT....If the drought continues or gets worse, values could decline, but I am thinking positive, conserving water and praying for rain!

This discussion with the Realtor did prompt me to take a look back 20 years at Lake Lanier levels and I thought everyone would like to know just what the history of the lake fluctuations were. I recorded those times when it dropped below the 1060 level and how long it took it to return to full pool at 1071. Here is what I found:

1981: 1052.66 Lowest on December 23, 1981
1982: 1070.05 Almost full pool on June 5, 1982

1986: 1055.25 Lowest on September, 30, 1986
1987: 1071.04 Back to Full Pool April 6, 1987

1987: 1057.9 Dropped on December 13, 1987
1989: 1071.04 Returned to full pool July 6, 1989

***1 1/2 years to return to full pool

1993: 1058.25 Dropped on November 25, 1993
1994: 1071.01 Returned to full pool May 10, 1994

2000: 1058.52 Dropped on September 20, 2000
2001: 1055.61 Continues to Drop on January 17, 2001
2003: 1071.36 Back to Full Pool on February 22, 2003

**Over 2 years to return to full Pool**

2006: 1067.00 Started its drop in May, 2006
2006: 1065.00 Continued its drop in June, 2006
2006: 1061.00 Continued its drop in September, 2006

2007: 1068.00 Back Up in April, 2007
2007: 1058.00 Down again in September, 2007
2007: 1055.00 Down again in October, 2007 **Big drop in one month!
2007: 1051.00 Down again in November, 2007 ** Big drop in one month!
2007: 1050.00 Down slightly in December 2007

2008: 1051.00 Up slightly in January, 2008

**Thanks to the rain and slow to no release of the water from Buford Dam.

So for those who think Lanier never recovers from her drought periods, this is proof that she DOES indeed recover, each and every time!

Pray for more rain, lets clean up our shores, conserve more water and Lake Lanier will be back to her "old self" and soon we will be saying: "Remember when we had that terrible drought back in 2007"......

May 2008 be a great year for us all! Thanks for visiting and REMEMBER....if you need someone who knows and understands the Lake, you have found her: Just click on the link below.

http://www.marytappraisals.com